Can Tinubu overcome Nigeria’s economic hardships to secure 2027 victory?

By Maseshin Ibn Ma’ashin

President Bola Tinubu faces a challenging path to securing victory in the 2027 Nigerian presidential election due to the persistent economic hardships, chiefly high inflation, currency depreciation, and a cost-of-living crisis affecting many Nigerians. His administration’s economic policies, such as the removal of fuel subsidies and efforts to stabilize the economy, have been described as bold and necessary to prevent economic collapse, with some prominent figures praising these reforms for averting a total breakdown. However, these measures have also caused immediate hardship, contributing to inflation and public discontent, making it critical for the government to deliver tangible improvements in living standards before the election.

A key factor influencing Tinubu’s re-election prospects is Nigeria’s deepening insecurity, especially in the North-East and North-West regions, which impacts food production, economic activity, and general public wellbeing. Northern elder Alhaji Dabo Sambo has publicly warned that failing to address insecurity and banditry could cost Tinubu the 2027 election, drawing parallels to the electoral defeat of former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 under similar circumstances. The insecurity has disrupted farming in key food-producing areas responsible for over 60% of Nigeria’s agricultural output, causing food scarcity and drive inflation higher, exacerbating the economic hardships experienced by voters.

Political analysts and opposition figures note that while APC, under Tinubu, has strong institutional backing, there is significant opposition momentum, including coalitions centered on addressing economic and governance issues, potentially threatening Tinubu’s hold if he cannot demonstrate better governance, especially on security and economic issues.

In addition, the government is reportedly considering large-scale borrowing ahead of the elections to fund public spending programs, possibly aimed at winning back public support through economic stimulus, but this also carries long-term fiscal risks.

In summary, Tinubu’s ability to overcome Nigeria’s economic hardships and secure a 2027 victory hinges on the government’s success in:

• Effectively addressing the country’s insecurity to restore agricultural production and food security.
• Delivering more visible and equitable economic improvements to the populace, mitigating inflationary pressures.
• Managing political dynamics to maintain APC cohesion while countering a unified opposition coalition.

Failure to make significant progress on these fronts could jeopardize Tinubu’s re-election chances, as public demand for security and basic needs like food outweighs traditional electoral patronage tactics.

Thus, while Tinubu’s reforms have laid some groundwork, overcoming the intertwined security and economic challenges remains critical to securing popular support and winning the 2027 election.

Nigerian voters have a mixed perception of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms so far. While the All Progressives Congress (APC) and government officials commend these reforms for stabilizing Nigeria’s macroeconomic fundamentals, attracting foreign direct investments exceeding $50 billion, and achieving GDP growth around 3.38% in late 2024, many ordinary Nigerians continue to feel the harsh impact of rising inflation and cost of living.

Specifically, Tinubu’s reforms such as the removal of fuel subsidies, the unification of foreign exchange rates, and currency devaluations are considered bold and necessary to address longstanding economic distortions. These moves have been credited with restoring investor confidence and improving fiscal deficit ratios. However, they have also led to increased prices for fuel, electricity, and food staples, creating significant economic hardship for many citizens amid persistent inflation above 20%.

Several specific economic reforms could potentially boost Tinubu’s chances in the 2027 election by delivering more immediate and visible relief to Nigerians:

• Continuing efforts to reduce inflation and stabilize the currency.
• Expanding social safety nets and cash transfers for vulnerable populations.
• Recapitalizing financial institutions like the Bank of Industry and Bank of Agriculture to support agriculture and small businesses.
• Increasing revenue allocation to states to improve infrastructure, education, and healthcare.
• Removing VAT on essential goods (already partially done) to ease the tax burden on households.

Regarding insecurity in the North, the situation has negatively affected Tinubu’s political prospects. The ongoing insecurity, especially in the North-East, North-West and the North-Central, disrupts agricultural production and food supply, thereby exacerbating inflation and economic hardship among voters. Northern elders and analysts warn that failure to resolve insecurity and banditry could significantly hurt Tinubu’s reelection bid, as public demand for security and livelihoods becomes a key electoral issue.

Opposition alliances, such as those forming around the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition with figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, pose a real challenge to Tinubu’s 2027 presidential bid. These alliances capitalize on dissatisfaction with economic hardships and governance issues. If effective in uniting various opposition factions and appealing to voters concerned with inflation, insecurity, and government accountability, they could derail Tinubu’s campaign despite the APC’s institutional strength.

Nigerian voters have mixed feelings about President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms so far. While government officials and the APC praise these reforms for stabilizing the macroeconomy, attracting over $50 billion in foreign direct investments, and achieving around 3.38% GDP growth in late 2024, many ordinary Nigerians are still struggling with the rising inflation and cost of living.

Tinubu’s reforms include removing fuel subsidies, unifying foreign exchange rates, and devaluing the currency. These are seen as bold and necessary steps to fix longstanding economic problems. They have helped restore investor confidence and improve fiscal deficit ratios. However, these reforms have also caused prices for fuel, electricity, and basic food items to rise sharply, which has made life harder for many people since inflation remains above 20%.

To improve his chances in the 2027 election, Tinubu could focus on economic reforms that provide more immediate relief for Nigerians. Important measures would include continuing to fight inflation and stabilize the currency, expanding social safety nets and cash transfers for vulnerable groups, recapitalizing institutions like the Bank of Industry and the Bank of Agriculture to support farming and small businesses, increasing funds allocated to states to improve infrastructure, education, and health, and reducing taxes on essential goods to ease the financial burden on households.

Insecurity in the northern regions, particularly in the North-East and North-West, has hurt Tinubu’s political prospects. The ongoing violence and banditry disrupt agriculture and food supply, which worsens inflation and economic hardship. Northern community leaders have warned that unless security improves, Tinubu risks losing support in these areas, as many voters prioritize safety and their livelihood.

Lastly, opposition alliances, such as the coalition forming around the African Democratic Congress (ADC) with leaders like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, are a serious challenge to Tinubu’s reelection effort. They attract voters dissatisfied with economic difficulties and governance issues. If these opposition groups manage to unite effectively and offer credible alternatives, they could threaten Tinubu’s campaign despite the APC’s strong institutional machinery.

In summary, public perception recognizes Tinubu’s reforms as necessary for macroeconomic health but harsh on everyday Nigerians. His chances in 2027 depend on delivering visible economic relief, resolving northern insecurity, and countering a potentially united and appealing opposition coalition

These factors collectively frame the difficult political and economic environment Tinubu will navigate in aiming for a 2027 victory. Whether he will win, remains to be seen.