BY COLLINS OPUROZOR
In a recent gathering of opposition figures in Abuja, former Governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, made a dire proclamation about Nigeria’s democracy. “We stand the risk of losing democracy itself. In the last election, only 26% of registered voters bothered to come out to vote. I am in possession of a recent opinion poll which shows that 75% of registered voters in Nigeria do not intend to vote in the next election. That is very dangerous for us. And I think every voice must rise and fight for this democracy. So, this is a national emergency,” El-Rufai declared.
While his concerns about voter apathy may appear valid, his conclusion is flawed. The decline in voter turnout does not indicate the death of democracy but rather the impact of much-needed electoral reforms that have eliminated past fraudulent voting practices.
A comparison with other democracies offers context. In South Africa’s May 29, 2024, general election, voter turnout stood at 58.64%. The U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, recorded an estimated turnout of 63.9%. Ghana’s December 7, 2024, presidential election saw 63.97% of registered voters participating. Nigeria’s figures may actually appear dismal by comparison, but the downward trend since 2015 requires deeper analysis rather than an alarmist verdict on democracy’s survival.
Looking at Nigeria’s recent presidential elections reveals a clear pattern. In 2015, out of 67.42 million registered voters, 29.43 million cast their ballots, translating to a 43.65% turnout. In 2019, registered voters increased to 82.34 million, but votes cast dropped to 28.61 million, resulting in a turnout of 34.75%. By 2023, with a voter register of 93.47 million, only 24.02 million votes were cast, leading to a 26.71% turnout. While these figures may appear troubling, they do not signal the near-death of democracy, as El-Rufai wanted his audience to believe. Rather, they reflect the effects of reforms that have curbed past electoral malpractices.
Previously, elections in Nigeria were riddled with fraud. Ballot box snatching, vote inflation, and outright falsification of results were rampant. Entire local government areas could be hijacked by political thugs, who simply wrote fictitious results. However, the introduction of the Smart Card Reader in 2015 and the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) in 2023 significantly reduced these manipulations. The decline in voter turnout is not necessarily due to voter apathy but because fraudulent votes are no longer being counted. In the past, turnout figures were artificially inflated. Today, what remains is a more accurate, albeit lower, record of actual voter participation.
A bigger factor in the distortion of turnout statistics is the credibility of Nigeria’s voter register. Officially, Nigeria has 93.47 million registered voters, with about 87.21 million having collected their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs). However, a significant portion of these PVCs belongs to political actors who fraudulently acquired them using fake identities. Due to biometric accreditation, these fraudulent identities can no longer be used, meaning millions of names on the voter register are practically useless. The result is an artificially high number of registered voters, which, in turn, makes the turnout percentage appear lower than it actually is.
While El-Rufai misidentifies the problem, he inadvertently has initiated a conversation about a deeper issue that needs to be addressed so as to consolidate Nigeria’s electoral democracy: the dangerous structure of political party financing. In Nigeria, political parties are controlled by a small group of wealthy individuals—political machines or, as some would call them, godfathers—who fund party activities as personal investments. Their financial dominance breeds desperation to capture state power at all costs, leading to electoral violence, vote-buying, and rigging. This system disenfranchises ordinary Nigerians, weakens political institutions, and alienates voters.
For democracy to be strengthened in Nigeria, political parties must be returned to the people. It is pathetic that party membership carries no responsibility anymore, and no value even and, consequently, no input in party decisions, including an issue as crucial as nomination of candidates for elections. Funding should be sourced from party members through membership dues, rather than from a few financiers who see politics as a business venture, and who see the capture of state power as mere pathway to primitive accumulation of wealth. Additionally, transparent subventions from the electoral umpire should support party operations, ensuring accountable leadership. When citizens finance political parties, they take ownership of the electoral process and become more invested in elections. This will help restore voter confidence and encourage higher participation.
The Inter-Party Advisory Council of Nigeria (IPAC) has recognized this need. In its 2024-2028 Action Plan, IPAC advocates for the restoration of public funding for political parties through constitutional amendments. This move aims to reduce the influence of political machines and return control of parties to their members. As former Senate President Pius Anyim noted during the plan’s unveiling, addressing the hijack of party machinery by “money bags” is essential for deepening democracy.
Reforming and/or strengthening party finance laws is also crucial. Current regulations, as outlined in the Electoral Act, set spending limits for candidates but lack effective enforcement and deterrent penalties. Strengthening these laws and empowering the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to monitor and enforce compliance will deter machine politics and reduce the undue influence of wealthy financiers.
Nigeria’s democracy is not dying, but, just like all democracies across the world, it is confronted with systemic flaws occasioned by weak party institutions that must be addressed. By focusing on reforming party financing and returning political parties to the people, the nation can address all other symptoms presented by this underlying cause. This path forward requires more than rhetoric—it demands precision, reform, and the political will to accentuate confidence in our democracy. Only then can Nigeria’s elections become a true reflection of the people’s will.
